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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 17
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Late Sunday
 
 
*updated

Prediction: GB 14, ARI 20

Update: Chris Wells has been limited in practice with a sore groin so I am lowering his projections - nothing to gain using him this week. The Cards could be resting more players that initially thought based on what happens in the early game between the Vikings and Giants. Both of these teams are risky plays this week. Neil Rackers is now expected to play instead of Nick Nugent but that change if Rackers has a setback - stay from this situation if possible.

The Packers are in the playoffs and have nothing to win other than potentially getting a #5 seed instead of a #6 seed. The Cardinals could be playing for a #2 seed though and will not know if that is possible until the end of the Eagles-Cowboys game which is played at the same time and if the Vikings lose their early game. The best assumption here is that the Cards do not play this one out for real unless the Vikings lose to the visiting Giants (unlikely) and the Packers likely do little to win and do not want to show their offense to a potential playoff foe.

Green Bay Packers (10-5)
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 CHI 21-15 -4 46
2 CIN 24-31 -9 42
3 @STL 36-17 -6.5 41
4 @MIN 23-30 +3.5 46
5 BYE - - -
6 DET 26-0 -13.5 47.5
7 @CLE 31-3 -9.5 41.5
8 MIN 26-38 -3.5 46.5
9 @TB 28-38 -10 43.5
10 DAL 17-7 +3 48
11 SF 30-24 -6 42
12 @DET 34-12 -11 48
13 BAL 24-14 -3 44
14 @CHI 21-14 -4 41
15 @PIT 36-37 +2.5 41.5
16 SEA 48-10 -13.5 43.5
17 @ARI - +3 43.5
GB at ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers     230,2
RB Ryan Grant 70 10  
TE Jermichael Finley   50  
WR Greg Jennings   60,1  
WR Donald Driver   50,1  
WR James Jones   40  
PK Mason Crosby   2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Packers are only 4-3 in road games and could end up not taking this one that seriously. The offense has been scoring very well as of late and the Packers are 6-1 over the last seven games and so far are very healthy - that is something to protect this week.

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed a stellar season with 4199 yards and 29 passing scored going into this week. He's been a scoring machine in most games but left fantasy owners high and dry last week when he only produced 237 yards and one touchdown against the visiting Seahawks in a game where the Packers scored 48 points. But he will need to throw in this week and every other in the playoffs.

The Cardinals would be a great source of fantasy points this week if you could be sure that the Packers would play the entire game. Hard to rely on anything this week much less a big game. The projection assumes the Packers to play almost all the game and in earnest but that could change during the game.

Running Backs: :Last week saw the Packers with five rushing scores and Brandon Jackson rolled up three in total after never scoring in the previous 14 games this year. Ryan Grant also scored twice in that game. In every other week it has been Grant alone that matters and he is winding down the season with 1202 rushing yards and ten touchdowns with 197 yards coming on 25 receptions.

The Cardinals have been much weaker against the run in recent games but with potentially a first round bye at stake, expect the "A" game in the desert that holds Grant out of the end zone.

Wide Receivers: When Donald Driver gets four yards this week, it will grant the Packers with two players over the 1000 yard mark since Greg Jennings has already totaled 1084 yards and four scores. This week would be a prime locale for the passing game but the Packers may lack motivation.

The Cardinals have one of the weaker secondaries in the league but the Packers may not want to disclose anything beyond vanilla plays. Plus the bigger concern is that Rodgers has already been sacked 50 times this year. He could get pulled just to preserve his health which would erase these wideouts as fantasy options. The receivers will likely play the entire game but Rodgers cannot be a lock to remain in the game.

Tight Ends: Jermichael Finley has been above 70 yards for the last four straight games and is becoming the primary target for Rodgers. Like the wideouts, his production this week relies on Rodgers playing the whole game and that is a risk.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 1 14 9 4 5 3
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 16 14 27 20 8 18


Arizona Cardinals (10-5)
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 SF 16-20 -6 46
2 @JAC 31-17 +3 43
3 IND 10-31 -2.5 48
4 BYE - - -
5 HOU 28-21 -5.5 48
6 @SEA 27-3 +3 47
7 @NYG 24-17 +9 46.5
8 CAR 21-34 10 43.5
9 @CHI 41-21 +3 44.5
10 SEA 31-20 -9 46.5
11 @STL 21-13 -9.5 46.5
12 @TEN 17-20 +3.5 44.5
13 MIN 30-17 -3.5 48
14 @SF 9-24 -3.5 48
15 @DET 31-24 -14 46.5
16 STL 31-10 -16 44
17 GB - -3 43.5
ARI vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Kurt Warner     220,1
RB Chris Wells 40 10  
RB Tim Hightower 60,1 40  
WR Anquan Boldin   60,1  
WR Larry Fitzgerald   50  
WR Steve Breaston   40  
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The loss by the Vikings now opens up the chance that the Cardinals could get a first round bye if they win this week and the Eagles and Vikings both lose. That is probably not going to happen but won't be for sure until the games are played. The Vikings game will already be over when this kicks off and assuming that the Vikes win, then this game has no meaning and would be treated like a preseason game. Hard to rely on this week.

Quarterback: Kurt Warner has become only the second quarterback ever to have thrown over 100 touchdowns with two different teams and that is a good example of just how good Warner has been in Arizona. He already has 3722 yards and 26 scores this year and needs just 278 yards for a 4000 yard season but that is hardly worth chasing if there is nothing to play for. This would be a decent matchup if you can rely on it - but you cannot.

Chances are high that Warner gives way to Matt Leinart at some point.

Running Backs: Tim Hightower remains a goal line option with a score in the last two games but he has given way to Beanie Wells as the primary back right when fantasy owners wanted him the most. Wells has scored in each of the last three games and never had less than 93 total yards in those games. He has finally replaced Hightower for the last month but still loses out scores and catches to him.

How this plays out next year remains to be seen but for this week, the Cardinals will probably rely more on the run that normal. The Packers have a great unit against the run but are on the road in a game with no meaning and should let the Cardinals run more than they will in a later playoff matchup.

Wide Receivers: This could be a decent showing for the dynamic duo but Larry Fitzgerald banged up his elbow last week and is Warner leaves the game then it's mostly downhill for the receivers. It will be hard to rely on either Anquan Boldin or Fitzgerald for more than the first half though they may play the entire game. The risk is just higher.

This could end up to be a chance to let Early Doucet and Steve Breaston get some playing time as the starters as well as Matt Leinart. Expect just a moderate showing here and keep your fingers crossed if you use Boldin or Fitzgerald. The risk is high.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 12 8 2 32 15 7
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 20 2 12 21 2 13

The Huddle
WEEK 17
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
 
 
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