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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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~ 2009 ~


Prediction: NYJ 13, CIN 17

Here is another replay of last week when the Jets made the playoffs by rolling up a 37-0 rout of the Bengals who were resting players and like the Colts before them, allowed the Jets to have a much easier matchup than most. The Bengals are favored by 2.5 points this time and it is being played in Cincinnati where the Bengals are 6-2 and the last five visitors have scored less than 14 points.

This is going to be a very cold game with a forecast of around 20 degrees or less.

New York Jets (9-7)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 24-7 +4.5 44
2 NE 16-9 +6 46
3 TEN 24-17 -2.5 37
4 @NO 10-24 +6.5 46
5 @MIA 27-31 -1.5 36.5
6 BUF 13-16 --9.5 37
7 @OAK 38-0 -6 34
8 MIA 25-30 -3.5 40
9 BYE - - -
10 JAC 22-24 -7 41
11 @NE 14-31 +10.5 45
12 CAR 17-6 -3.5 41
13 @BUF 19-13 -3.5 39
14 @TB 26-3 -3.5 36.5
15 ATL 7-10 -5.5 36.5
16 @IND 29-15 +3 40.5
17 CIN 37-0 -9.5 33.5
NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez   130
RB Thomas Jones 80,1  
RB Shonn Greene 30  
TE Dustin Keller   2-20
WR Jerricho Cotchery   4-50
WR Braylon Edwards   3-40
WR Wallace Wright   1-10
PK Jay Feely 2 FG 1 XP
Pregame Notes: Judging by last week this should be another massacre but of course the Bengals were taking a vacation and the Jets loved rolling up the score for the last game played in Giants Stadium. The Jets offense has been far less productive this season prior to the last two games and since their bye week

Quarterback: If there is one thing the Bengals defense would want, it would be to force the Jets to pass. To make Mark Sanchez be the success factor in the game. The rookie has been good enough this year of lower expectations, but in the playoffs he cannot be relied on for the win. He has only thrown four touchdowns over the last seven games and never more than one in those weeks. His last four road trips have never produced more than 146 passing yards.

No matter what happens - figure on Sanchez to produce low numbers and likely not score this week. Even during the massacre last week he only passed for 63 yards and completed 50% of his passes.

Brad Smith is the wildcard here. He had two long runs from the wildcat formation last week and scored once but has usually only turned in 20 yards or less.

Running Backs: Thomas Jones has been a scoring machine this year and had two touchdowns last week while the Bengals were resting a couple of defensive linemen but he still only gained 78 yards on 27 carries. Shonn Greene added 13 runs for 62 yards as well but don't expect the same level of success this week. The Bengals have only allowed two rushing scores to a visitor runner all year long. They have only allowed 70 rushing yards per home game.

Jones could end up with a score here since he is clearly the most likely to have a touchdown on the Jets team but anything more than one is very unlikely and the yardage will tone down from last week.

Wide Receivers: Jerricho Cotchery ran in a score last week but it was only his second rushing attempt of the year. He has not scored via a pass since week 11 and has not had more than 50 yards in a game for over a month. Braylon Edwards had his one big game at home against the Falcons but otherwise has been under 50 yards per game since week 10. Minimal fantasy value on the squad all year and it has only been worse for the last month. Add in a road game in very cold weather and the outlook is even worse.

No reason to expect a score or more than the mediocre stats of the past four weeks.

Tight Ends: Dustin Keller has been a non factor for almost the entire season and has only two scores. He has not produced more than 33 yards in a game since week 12.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 29 16 23 27 9 10
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 8 10 4 10 13 8

Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DEN 7-12 -5 42.5
2 @GB 31-24 +9 42
3 PIT 23-20 +4.5 37
4 @CLE 23-20 -5.5 38
5 @BAL 17-14 +8.5 42
6 HOU 17-28 -5.5 46
7 CHI 45-10 -1 42.5
8 BYE - - -
9 BAL 17-7 +3 43.5
10 @PIT 18-12 +6.5 41
11 @OAK 17-20 -9 36
12 CLE 16-7 -12 39.5
13 DET 23-13 +13.5 42
14 @MIN 10-30 +6 42.5
15 @SD 24-27 +6.5 44
16 KC 17-10 -13 39.5
17 @NYJ 0-37 +9.5 33.5
CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer   160
RB Cedric Benson 100,1 1-10
WR Chad Ochocinco   3-30
WR Laveranues Coles   4-50
WR Andre Caldwell   3-40
PK Shayne Graham 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bengals held out Cedric Benson and three defenders in Robert Geathers, Domata Peko and Chris Crocker it gave the game a much different look than this week will. They also stepped into the Jets making the playoffs and sending off Giants Stadium in their final home game there. But the Bengals have won their last five home games and the defense now faces an opponent with almost no passing game. At home, they can stop the run.

I like a defensive score in this game.

Quarterback: Carson Palmer has been mostly average this year with the occasional decent game but he's only been averaging about one touchdown per week for the second half of the season and only once had more than 225 yards in a game in that time. The Jets are #1 against quarterbacks and Carson Palmer set an NFL record last week when he threw 11 passes and yet never gained a single yard.

Expect a better showing this week but not much more. This game will be cold and the Jets secondary is top notch. Low passing numbers in this game.

Running Backs: Cedric Benson was held out last week but he has been golden at home this year with either 100 rushing yards or a touchdown or both. Benson has not scored since week nine which is a concern but has six games over 100 yards this year and is rested now entering this game.

Benson will be a focal point for the Bengals offense and has to have success against a very tough defense. It helps that the Jets are on the road this time. At home the Jets have allowed only one rushing score by a running back but on the road have given up eight touchdowns including five over the last four games.

Cold game at home - Benson will be the workhorse and likely not give way to Larry Johnson much. This is why they have Benson.

Wide Receivers: Chad Ochocinco was held to no catches on four passes by Darrelle Revis last week but back on his own turf will do better. Not much better though since Revis has redefined shutdown receiver. And Laveranues Coles was held to only 19 yards on three catches last week which wasn't all that much lower than previous weeks. There is a chance of a passing score but not a good one and there will not be much yardage associated with it. Both teams are going to rely on rushing and good defense to the extent possible. The best thing Ochocinco can do it block Revis is Benson breaks through the line.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value

Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 20 27 13 30 24 18
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 1 5 1 3 3 26


~ 2009 ~

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