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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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DIVISIONAL
ROUND

~ 2009 ~

Saturday
Sunday
 
 

Prediction: NYJ 17, SD 24

The Jets have yet to stop surprising and come off a surprisingly thorough defeat of the Bengals in Cincinnati. The Jets are 6-3 in road games this year and the Chargers have gone 6-2 at home but have not lost in the last 11 games. Vegas has the Chargers as seven point favorites but it is getting hard to count the Jets out.

New York Jets (9-7)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 24-7 +4.5 44
2 NE 16-9 +6 46
3 TEN 24-17 -2.5 37
4 @NO 10-24 +6.5 46
5 @MIA 27-31 -1.5 36.5
6 BUF 13-16 --9.5 37
7 @OAK 38-0 -6 34
8 MIA 25-30 -3.5 40
9 BYE - - -
10 JAC 22-24 -7 41
11 @NE 14-31 +10.5 45
12 CAR 17-6 -3.5 41
13 @BUF 19-13 -3.5 39
14 @TB 26-3 -3.5 36.5
15 ATL 7-10 -5.5 36.5
16 @IND 29-15 +3 40.5
17 CIN 37-0 -9.5 33.5
NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez     210,1
RB Thomas Jones 60,1 10  
RB Shonn Greene 50    
TE Dustin Keller   60,1  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   70  
WR Braylon Edwards   30  
PK Jay Feely 1 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: Six weeks running and still no team has scored more than 15 points on the Jets. The defense continues to be one of the toughest in the league and suddenly Mark Sanchez is playing his best ball of the year and Shonn Greene has morphed into an unstoppable stud running back as of last week. That's going to be much harder to replicate on Sunday night.

Quarterback: Mark Sanchez is not going to be why the Jets win games but he's also not the reason they might lose if he continues to play as he did in Cincinnati. When the Jets needed him most, Sanchez responded by completing 12 of 15 passes for 182 yards and one score against the Bengals. He had no turnovers and was never sacked.

Sanchez could have a decent showing this week since the Bengals have allowed over 280 pass yards and two passing touchdowns to three of the last four visitors but this offense will never throw more than absolutely necessary. A good chance that the Jets do get forced to the air eventually so Sanchez will have a bit higher stats. But that would only reflect the game not going as well for the Jets.

Running Backs: Thomas Jones has a bruised knee that is forcing him to wear a brace and last week Shonn Greene just took over when he gained 135 yards on just 21 carries and scored once in Cincinnati. Jones remains the starter but has been less effective in recent weeks which could be a sign that age is slowing him down. That makes Jones a riskier start this week and Greene still has to wait for whatever is left after Jones.

The Chargers at home have been very good against the run and allowed just one score in the last four games played in San Diego. No visitor has rushed for more than 100 yards there. Look for a much lower rushing total this week but with a chance for one rushing score. The Jets are

Wide Receivers: No changes here - Braylon Edwards is still dropping passes no matter if they could have been a touchdown or not. Edwards has remained below 20 yards in the last three games. Jerricho Cotchery has been far more productive but has not caught a touchdown since week 11 and has remained below 70 yards in each of the last six games played.

The Chargers secondary is their weakest spot but no reason to expect that the Jets are going to suddenly become a hot passing team. Look for moderate numbers at best and likely no touchdowns.

Tight Ends: Dustin Keller really came to life last week when he had a season high 99 yards on three catches and scored once in Cincinnati. He's the best bet again this week to catch a touchdown.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 29 16 23 27 9 10
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 13 19 8 15 17 1


San Diego Chargers (13-3)
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @OAK 24-20 -9.5 43
2 BAL 26-31 -5 40.5
3 MIA 23-13 -6 42
4 @PIT 28-38 +6.5 43
5 BYE - - -
6 DEN 23-34 -3.5 44
7 @KC 37-7 -5.5 44
8 OAK 24-16 -16 41.5
9 @NYG 21-20 +4 47.5
10 PHI 31-23 -1 47
11 @DEN 32-3 -6.5 41.5
12 KC 43-14 -13 44.5
13 @CLE 30-23 -13.5 42.5
14 @DAL 20-17 +3.5 48.5
15 CIN 27-24 -6.5 44
16 @TEN 42-17 +3 47.5
17 WAS 23-20 -3 39
SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers     220,1
RB Ladainian Tomlinson 60,2 20  
RB Darren Sproles 20 40  
TE Antonio Gates   40,1  
WR Malcolm Floyd   50  
WR Vincent Jackson   40  
WR Legedu Naanee   20  
PK Nate Kaeding 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Chargers come off their bye week with an eleven game winning streak. Unfortunately, they draw the best defense in the NFL to face and that won't be kind to fantasy points. But the team is as healthy as it has been in a while with Vincent Jackson getting over his heel injury and Shawn Merriman looking to practice on his foot that had a torn plantar fascia. The Chargers have been the hottest team in the league for the second half of the season and not scored less than 20 points in any game this year.

Quarterback: Philip Rivers has scored in every game this year and had five games exceed 300 passing yards. While Mark Sanchez just put 168 yards and a score on the Bengals, Rivers had 308 yards and three touchdowns when the Bengals came to San Diego three weeks ago. This week will be a major challenge for Rivers who has been over 250 yards and had multiple scores for about six weeks now.

The Jets defense is ranked #1 against quarterbacks. They have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns this year and never more than two in any game. The Jets have also mostly faced average passing offenses. Brady posted 310 yards and one score when the Jets visited New England.

Look for a lower effort from Rivers but he can still have a good shot at a passing score.

Running Backs: LaDainian Tomlinson has not been that productive with yardage this year and has not exceeded 75 rush yards in any of the last seven games but he has been solid at scoring with 12 touchdowns. Darren Sproles has been only minimally involved though he had a freakish three touchdowns in Tennessee in week 16. Sproles has scored four times as a receiver this year and will likely need to show up in that capacity again this week.

The Jets gave up 169 yards and a score to Cedric Benson last week and and that made it six touchdowns over the last five road games - clearly the weaker spot in the defense. Figure on Tomlinson getting at least one rushing score and could end up with two as have two other road opponents of the Jets this season.

Wide Receivers: Vincent Jackson has been bothered with a sore heel but is expected to play this week and get smothered by Darrelle Revis like every other wideout to face him. On the plus side, you have to love consistently and the lack of risk. You know Revis will get the job done. He's done it for 17 games now. That leaves Malcolm Floyd who has only scored once this year and while he had a big game in the final week, he has been mediocre every week with around 50 yards.

There is a chance that Floyd could score as did Laveranues Coles last week. But the Jets have only given up six scores to wideouts over the entire season. Safer bet is to expect just marginal stats here this week.

Tight Ends: While Antonio Gates was held to only one game with a score in the first 11 weeks, he's been on a streak with a touchdown in each of the last four games and six touchdowns in the last six games. The Jets have held tight ends to less than 65 yards in every game so look for a score and moderate yardage from Gates this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 9 6 19 4 1 12
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 1 5 1 3 3 26

DIVISIONAL
ROUND

~ 2009 ~

Saturday
Sunday
 
 
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